A story, beautifully told by David Stockton that was culled from the transcript
of an FOMC meeting in September 2005 and demonstrates the absurdity of
projections (particularly in government-run institutions).
During World War II,
[Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team of statisticians to produce
long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow and his team determined that
their forecasts were not much better than pulling predictions out of a hat.
They wrote their superiors, asking to be relieved of the duty. They received
the following reply, and I quote "The Commanding General is well aware
that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning
purposes."
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