Saturday, May 16, 2015

#NoEstimates Project Planning using Monte Carlo simulation videos

Last year InfoQ published my article #NoEstimates Project Planning Using Monte Carlo Simulation on how to plan probabilistically using Reference Class Forecasting and Monte Carlo simulation.

Probabilistic high-level plan forecasts the initial budget and also the range of the time frame for a project. We don’t plan in detail what is not absolutely necessary to plan. The short-term details, like the scheduling, are done based on the immediate needs and capabilities – and we create these schedules upon the execution of the high-level plan. When executing the high-level plan we have to keep focus on the project intent but we can never be certain which paths will offer the best chances of realizing it. We exploit uncertainty by making a series of small choices which open up further options then observe the effects of our actions and exploit unexpected successes.

I presented the topic at Lean Agile Scotland 2014 and at Lean Kanban UK 2014 conferences. The videos are here and here.

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